ࡱ> 7 EbjbjUU }7|7|~lX X X .d| >X00FWWWWWWW$Z 4\WX ޴x"W0FW0 8FWW &  T@ )F >tR "$d).X0>X1%x\\) Welcome to the Private Sector Session of the 2003 AGOA Forum The official Organizing Committee is pleased to welcome the delegates to the Private Sector Session of the second annual meeting of the U.S.-Sub-Saharan Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum (AGOA Forum). Along with the American Chamber of Commerce in Mauritius and the Corporate Council on Africa, MUSBAs sister organization, the African Coalition for Trade (ACT) has been honored to have been selected to organize the Private Sector Session of the 2003 AGOA Forum. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) mandates the creation of a ministerial-level forum patterned after APEC (the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) to provide a permanent venue for solidifying the economic gains created by AGOA and for developing new economic and trade programs linking the United States and Africa. AGOA also encourages that private sector and NGO events be held in tandem with the annual Ministerial.  The first meeting of the AGOA Forum was held in Washington last October. (See November 30, 2001 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) In order to solidify the principle of equal partnership in the AGOA relationship, it was announced on May 8, 2002, that the second meeting of the AGOA Forum would be held in Africa, specifically in Mauritius. (See May 31, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) A large and high-level U.S. delegation, including at least three Cabinet Secretaries, will participate in the Ministerial. Ministerial-level delegations are also expected from each of the 36 AGOA beneficiary countries. President George Bush had been expected to attend the Ministerial as well, but the White House announced on December 20, 2002, that the President would not be able to attend due to other pressing developments in U.S. international relations that require his personal attention. Instead, the White House announced that the President would postpone his trip to Africa until later in the year. The Private Sector Session of the AGOA Forum will open with an official ceremony during the evening on Monday, January 13. The Opening ceremony will be presided over by the Prime Minister of Mauritius, Sir Anerood Jugnauth. The morning of each of the next three days will begin with a plenary session, which will be followed by a series of breakout workshops. The three plenary sessions will be on the following topics: AGOA Success and Challenges (January 14), Financing Capital Flows to Africa (January 15), and Transportation, Logistics and Communications (January 16). The breakout workshops will include such varied topics as: Apparel Sourcing Under AGOA: Views of Major U.S. Importers; Future of the AGOA Apparel Provisions after 2004; Linking African Agriculture to Regional and Global Markets; Financing the Private Sector To Promote Economic Growth in Africa; Strategies for Linking U.S. and African SMEs; Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in Africa; Opportunities for Women in U.S.-Africa Trade; Outsourcing Financial Services; Doing Business in the U.S.; and Customs Security Issues in the Post 9/11 World. The speakers at these plenaries and workshops will include top U.S. and African business executives from such leading companies as: Boeing, DHL, Eddie Bauer, Ford Motor Company, Halliburton, J.C. Penney, the Limited, Maersk, Microsoft, Sears, and Target. These private sector leaders will be joined by senior government officials from both the United States and the 36 AGOA beneficiary countries. Each afternoon, the Private Sector Session will shift its attention from discussing U.S.-Africa business links to actually doing business at the first AGOA-focused Trade Exhibition ever to be held in Africa. Top manufacturers from across Africa have taken booths at the Trade Exhibition to promote their products, and senior sourcing officials from leading U.S. importers will be on hand to review the products and, hopefully, place orders. The Trade Exhibition is focused primarily on those sectors that benefit most from AGOA, including apparel and textiles in particular, as well as those support industries that make trade possible, such as transportation and logistics. With two weeks to go until the opening of the Private Sector Session, the Organizing Committee has been overwhelmed by the high level of interest in the AGOA Forum expressed by the private sectors in Africa and the United States. The Trade Exhibition has been sold out for weeks, and the number of delegates registered to participate in the Private Sector Session has substantially exceeded the target figure of 500 delegates. As of this writing, delegations from 25 of the 36 AGOA beneficiaries have registered to participate in the Private Sector Session AGOA seeks to harness the power of the private sector to contribute to sustainable economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa by stimulating increased trade flows between the United States and Africa. The strong showing by the private sector in the context of the AGOA Forum clearly demonstrates that the private sector has enthusiastically accepted AGOAs challenge. With two years of experience under the AGOA framework now behind us, the convening of the second annual AGOA Forum provides an appropriate occasion to assess the effectiveness of AGOA in achieving its goals. Looking back over the past two years, it is evident that AGOA has been remarkably successful, yet several important challenges still remain to be resolved. Successful Implementation of AGOA The U.S. Administration has worked hard during the past two years to ensure that access to the benefits of AGOA is available to as many of the potential beneficiary countries as possible. Thirty-six of the 48 potential beneficiaries have been found to be in compliance with the AGOA conditions of eligibility, leaving only 12 of the potential beneficiaries that have failed to take adequate steps toward good governance, democracy and economic reforms that are required to benefit from the AGOA program. At the same time, the U.S. authorities, led by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, have worked closely with the 36 eligible beneficiaries to assist them in developing apparel export visa systems to combat illegal transshipment and, thereby, to qualify for duty-free access to the U.S. apparel market. Today, fully one-half of the eligible beneficiaries 18 out of 36 - have approved visa systems and enjoy duty-free status for apparel exports. Illustrating the importance of AGOA apparel trade preference, these 18 countries with approved visas account for 98% of Africas apparel exports to the United States. Congress Enacts AGOA II Amendments While the Administration has been implementing AGOA, Congress has also made progress in expanding the scope of the AGOA trade benefits and in correcting technical mistakes made in the original statute. In August 2002, Congress enacted and President Bush signed into law the so-called AGOA II amendments, which (1) doubled the size of the tariff rate quota (TRQ) applicable to duty-free apparel imports; (2) extended less developed country (LDC) status to Botswana and Namibia, thereby entitling them to use third-country fabric through September 30, 2004; (3) clarified that knit-to-shape garments are eligible for duty-free treatment; and (4) corrected a technical mistake in the provision extending duty-free treatment to sweaters made of fine wool yarn. Additional technical amendments to AGOA were passed by the House of Representatives, but died before the Senate when the 107th Congress adjourned. (See related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) These additional amendments would have authorized greater flexibility in the use of both U.S. and African origin fabrics in a single garment and would have expanded the so-called short supply provision to permit African-origin fabrics to qualify for this special treatment. Despite the failure to enact these amendments this year, there are encouraging signs that Congress may take up these amendments early next year. In addition, an even more aggressive set of amendments to expand AGOA is currently being developed with key Members of Congress and will be the subject of one of the workshops at the AGOA Forum. Known as AGOA-Plus, these amendments focus on creating incentives to attract more U.S. private sector investment into Africa and additional ways to expand agricultural exports from Africa to the United States. Strong Growth in Apparel Trade Against this background, it is also clear that AGOA has been a great success in spurring increased African apparel exports to the United States. In 1999, the year before AGOA was enacted, the United States imported a total of 128.203 million square meter equivalents (msme) of apparel from Africa. In response to the incentives created by duty-free access to the U.S. apparel market, U.S. apparel imports from Africa by 2001 had shot up to 218.496 million sme, an increase of 70% in two years. Based on import statistics through October 2002 (see related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin), it seems likely that U.S. apparel imports from Africa during 2002 will jump to about 285 million sme, a further increase of 30%, bringing total growth in the three years since AGOA was enacted to a remarkable 123%! This strong growth in apparel imports from Africa is even more impressive when viewed in the context of the greater U.S. economy, which has been slowing down since the enactment of AGOA. Total U.S. apparel imports from all origins have been virtually flat, which is in sharp contrast to the experience over the past decade, when total U.S. apparel imports have grown on average by more than 10% per year. That Africa has managed to expand its apparel exports by and capture U.S. market share in these tough economic times is eloquent testimony to the importance of AGOA. Six countries together have accounted for the lions share of African apparel exports to the United States since AGOA was enacted. Foremost among these has been Lesotho, which took over first place honors in 2001. Mauritius and South Africa, which had been the largest African exporters of apparel to the United States prior to AGOA, remained in second and third place, respectively. Strong growth in apparel exports under AGOA has also been demonstrated by Madagascar, Kenya and Swaziland: U.S. Imports From1999 (msme)2000 (msme)2001 (msme)2002 (est.)% Change 99-02Lesotho 24.426 34.365 50.900 88.000260%Mauritius 37.246 39.771 41.072 49.000 32%South Africa 25.883 37.925 47.602 49.000 89%Madagascar 7.072 20.495 37.479 24.000239%Kenya 11.949 12.556 18.521 33.000176%Swaziland 3.563 7.166 11.433 26.000630%Rest of Africa 18.064 11.883 11.410 16.000 -11%Africa Total128.203164.161218.417285.000123% Challenges to Sustainable Apparel Trade Impressive as this growth in African apparel exports to the United States has been, it must be recognized that these gains are fragile. Having been created by regulatory preferences, i.e., by extending artificial competitive advantages to African apparel manufacturers in the form of quota-free and duty-free status while most other suppliers remain subject to both quotas and duties, Africas apparel export growth is vulnerable to changes in the underlying regulatory framework unless and until African apparel manufacturers can become internationally competitive. And this regulatory framework is constantly changing. Most important among the various potential threats to Africas apparel export gains under AGOA are: (1) the elimination of AGOAs quota-free advantage with the lifiting of worldwide apparel quotas including on China now that it has joined the WTO - when the Multi-Fiber Arrangement is terminated on January 1, 2005; and (2) the risk of dilution of AGOAs duty-free advantage as the Doha Round of international trade negotiations addresses various proposals for across-the-board tariff reductions. (See related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) While various mechanisms exist to mitigate these regulatory threats, in the long term the only reliable means to maintain the gains spurred by AGOA is to enable the African apparel industry to become internationally competitive, and this depends more on adopting modern business practices, investing in infrastructure, and eliminating hidden costs such as corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies than on regulatory strategies. In this context of vulnerable regulatory preferences, the most important long-term challenge facing the young but growing African apparel industry is to make itself competitive so that it can survive and prosper independent of the AGOA regime. 2004: Third-Country Fabric and African-Origin Yarn and Fabric Equally important, AGOA itself is not static. Rather, AGOAs special benefit for LDCs i.e., access to third-country fabric is scheduled to expire in just two years on September 30, 2004. Fully 80% of the apparel that has benefited from AGOAs duty-free status so far has come from LDCs and has been made with third-country fabric. (See related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Although substantial investments have been made in expanding yarn and fabric manufacturing capacity in Africa during the past two years, it remains to be seen whether there will be enough African-origin yarn/fabric of sufficient quality to meet the requirements of the rapidly growing apparel industry by September 30, 2004. Taking the steps necessary to ensure that there will be sufficient African-origin yarn and fabric in 2004, therefore, remains a critical challenge to the ongoing success of AGOA. The question of the future of the AGOA apparel provisions after 2004 will be the subject of a joint Ministerial-Private Sector Session workshop on Thursday, January 16, 2003. The Challenge of Good Governance But not all challenges to the future of AGOA arise from changes in the regulatory environment. Rather, to a great extent Africa holds its most important challenge in its own hands i.e., the challenge of good governance. While good governance is a condition of eligibility under the AGOA regime, in an even more important sense the real world of the marketplace requires good governance as a precondition of doing business. That is because U.S. importers have the choice of sourcing apparel and other products literally around the world. While AGOAs regulatory incentives of quota-free/duty-free access attract U.S. buyers to explore African sources of supply, nothing drives them away faster than instability that flows from lack of good governance. This is illustrated most clearly and tragically in the case of Madagascar, which had been one of the outstanding AGOA success stories, with annual growth in apparel exports approaching 100% per year and the creation of more than 50,000 new jobs. But all this came to a halt with the disputed presidential elections late last year and the resulting disruption of factory operations and transportation. During January October 2002, the most recent period for which such statistics are available, U.S. apparel imports from Madagascar were down 37% from the same period in 2001. While there are encouraging signs that production is beginning to return to normal with the peaceful resolution of the political crises, it will undoubtedly be at least several more months before sufficient confidence is restored so that Madagascar can resume its prior impressive pace of apparel export growth. In summary, the evidence is clear that the first two years of AGOA have been a great success. The U.S. Administration and Congress have made the implementation and expansion of AGOA a national priority. Apparel exports to the United States are up sharply despite a general slowdown in the U.S. economy. The challenge, however, will be to maintain these increased levels of trade in the face of regulatory changes both within the AGOA framework and in the larger world trading system. Equally important, in order to continue to succeed in the long run, African apparel manufacturers need to begin to take the steps necessary to become more internationally competitive even in the absence of trade preferences. And African governments need to solidify and expand the progress that has been made toward democracy and rule of law across most of the continent. The Organizing Committee of the Private Sector Session of the 2003 AGOA Forum looks forward to reviewing and solidifying the gains of the past two years and moving on to solving the challenges that remain to be addressed to ensure that AGOA remains a success in contributing to the economic development of Africa.  A Tribute To Rosa Whitaker Ms. Rosa Whitaker, the first and so far only Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Africa, left the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on December 20, 2002, after four years in office. Whitaker plans to teach and develop a consulting firm specializing on trade and investment with Africa. Senior Administration officials, Members of Congress and their staff, diplomats and private sector executives from across Washington gathered in the Indian Treaty Room of the Old Executive Office Building, next door to the White House, on December 10 to pay tribute to Whitaker as one of the main architects of the growing U.S.-Africa trade relationship as embodied in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jon Huntsman and Associate U.S. Trade Representative Josette S. Shiner spoke on behalf of U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick, who was unable to attend due to his critical role in the conclusion of the free trade negotiations with Chile. (See separate article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Shiner told those who had gathered at the ceremony that Whitaker is the very embodiment of what the Bush Administration is trying to achieve in Africa. Shiner said Rosa Whitaker's name has become synonymous with "opportunity and hope brought by trade" for all of Africa. "When she walks in a room, people say 'Here comes the mother of AGOA,'" Shiner told her audience. A protg of Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY), Whitaker was one of the leaders of a small group of Members of Congress and their staff who in 1995 conceived the idea of developing a preferential trade program for Africa as a way to get the private sector involved directly in helping to spur economic development in Africa. President Clinton appointed Whitaker to be the first Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Africa in 1998, two years before AGOA was enacted. In that post, she continued to play a pivotal leadership role in the legislative campaign to enact AGOA. In addition to helping to launch AGOA, Shiner credited Whitaker with working to bring down barriers in the U.S.-Africa trade relationship and as part of that process -- leading countless seminars and workshops in Africa to educate government officials and business people on the benefits of AGOA. These and other efforts to promote U.S.-Africa trade earned her the award as the outstanding woman in international trade for 2002 by the Association of Women in International Trade. Concluding, Shiner said the United States has "never been more committed to African development nor more deeply engaged in bringing that transformation to pass. This" she said, "is the legacy of Rosa Whitaker." In her remarks, Whitaker said there is now a "new era of partnership" between the United States and Africa. Whitaker said she has been especially honored serving both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, both of whom she called "two great friends of Africa." Whitaker paid special tribute to Congressman Rangel for his longtime support of U.S.-Africa trade. She also praised the dedication of U.S. Trade Representative Zoellick, who she described as "the first U.S. trade representative with a genuine interest in Africa . . . , the first U.S. trade representative in USTR's 40 year history to ever visit the region and the first . . . to move U.S. and African positions closer in the World Trade Organization (WTO)." While she acknowledged that trade and investment is "not the panacea for Africa," she said "it is the only vehicle that . . . can deliver the $100,000 million investment that is needed in Africa on an annual basis . . . . Business is not the enemy of Africa but a needed ally and partner." Despite having left the Administration, Whitaker will be a member of the U.S. delegation to the second annual AGOA Forum in Mauritius January 13-17, 2003. (See related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Both the Ministerial and the Private Sector Session will benefit from Whitakers contributions to the AGOA Forum.  Frist Elected Senate Majority Leader The Republicans regained control of the Senate in the November mid-term elections, but they will have a new Majority Leader in charge following the December 20, 2002 resignation of Trent Lott (R-MS) as the leader of his party in the upper chamber of Congress. Senator Lott, who will remain a member of the Senate, was forced to step down as Majority Leader as a result of a firestorm of controversy surrounding comments he made during a 100th birthday celebration for Senator Strom Thurmond. Senator Lotts remarks were construed by many as expressing support for racial segregation. After Senator Lott stepped down, Senate Republicans promptly caucused by telephone conference call and elected Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) as their new Majority Leader. Senator Frist is a medical doctor and heart surgeon by training and has risen rapidly through the Republican ranks in the Senate since he was first elected just seven years ago in 1995. Senator Lott presided over the Senate when AGOA was enacted in 2000. While Senator Lott always supported the concept of a preferential trade program for Africa, he made it plain that his top trade priority was renewing and expanding the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and that AGOA would be enacted only in tandem with his CBI legislation. As a result, Senator Lott in essence held the House-passed AGOA hostage to force passage of a CBI measure that was controversial in the House. These tactics delayed enactment of AGOA by at least a year. Nevertheless, Senator Lott deserves credit for overseeing the ultimate enactment of AGOA. As Majority Leader, Senator Frist should be an even greater friend of U.S.-Africa economic relations. Senator Frist served as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa during the 106th Congress, when Republicans last were in control. During his time as Chairman of the Africa Subcommittee, Senator Frist was a strong advocate for Africa in general and for AGOA in particular. There is reason for optimism, therefore, that as the new Majority Leader, Senator Frist will bring this same dedication to expanding and strengthening the economic ties with Africa. Such new interest in Africa, comes at an important time, as Congress left undone some AGOA amendments at the end of the 107th Congress. The House of Representatives had passed a series of amendments to AGOA in the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (MTB) on October 7, 2002. (See October 17, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) The MTB AGOA amendments would have (1) given retroactive effect back to the original effective date of AGOA of October 1, 2000, for the amendments enacted in AGOA II; (2) clarified that so-called short supply fabrics can be made in Africa; and (3) permitted commingling of both African and U.S. fabric in a single garment. Congress adjourned for the November mid-term elections, however, before the Senate had taken up the MTB. It was hoped that the Senate would be able to pass the MTB during its lame duck session following the elections. These hopes failed to materialize, however, when the Senate adjourned on November 21. (See November 30, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Although all three of the MTBs AGOA amendments are important, the provision giving retroactive effect to the AGOA II amendments would have solved an especially serious problem. The U.S. Customs Service is now beginning to impose duties on knit-to-shape garments imported prior to August 6, 2002, the effective date of the AGOA II amendments. In the Customs Services unique logic, the fact that Congress clarified in the AGOA II amendments that knit-to-shape garments are indeed eligible for duty-free treatment under AGOA, means that such garments were ineligible prior to the effective date of the AGOA II amendments. Hence, the Customs Service has turned AGOA II on its head and has initiated new efforts to impose duties on knit-to-shape products imported prior to August 6, 2002. This knit-to-shape amendment and the other AGOA provisions contained in the MTB ran afoul of Senators from textile-producing states, who had expressed concerns about the textile and apparel provisions of the MTB. In particular, Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) objected to the knit-to-shape retroactivity provision. Given the short time available in the lame duck session, these objections were enough to derail the MTB. With the retirement of Senator Helms at the end of the 107th Congress and the election of new Majority Leader Frist, it is expected to be much easier to obtain Senate approval of the MTB when the 108th Congress convenes in January. New FTAs and Tariff Proposal Could Undercut AGOA Benefits During the month of December, the United States concluded new free trade agreements (FTAs) with both Chile and Singapore. The new FTAs include preferential access for apparel products made in Chile and Singapore subject to certain limitations. Both the Singapore and Chile FTAs continue the traditional U.S. yarn-forward rule of origin, pursuant to which only apparel made in Singapore or Chile from fabric woven or knit in Singapore or Chile from yarn spun in Singapore or Chile will be eligible for quota-free/duty-free treatment. This is the same standard incorporated in NAFTA and most other U.S. FTAs. The Chile FTA, which was concluded on December 11, 2002, takes one further step by providing additional preferential access for apparel made from non-originating fabric, i.e., third-country fabric. Such imports are subject to a tariff preference limit (TPL), which has been set at a relatively high level roughly equivalent to Chiles current apparel exports to the United States. In other words, virtually all of Chiles current apparel exports to the United States could be accommodated by the new TPL on third-country fabric. The Chile FTA TPL on apparel made from third-country fabric will last for 10 years and then expire. In other words, the Chile FTA TPL is analogous in many ways to the African LDCs right to use third-country fabric. The major differences, however, are that Chile is much more developed than are the African LDCs, and the TPL lasts for 10 years rather than four. In short, Chile seems to have gotten a better deal under its FTA with the United States than Africa received under AGOA. It seems likely that the SACU countries may try to replicate the apparel provisions of the Chile FTA in their own FTA negotiations with the United States. (See related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletnt.) Chile is currently a relatively small apparel supplier to the United States, exporting roughly as much apparel as Malawi. The special preferences extended to Chile under the new FTA, however, could divert some of the potential trade and investment that otherwise would be attracted to Africa by AGOA. The new FTA with Chile might also have implications for the U.S. sugar program and access to the U.S. sugar market by the ten African countries that hold allocations under the U.S. tariff rate quota (TRQ) on sugar. (See separate article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Tariffs on most agricultural imports from Chile will be eliminated over four years, but duties on sensitive products are phased out over 12 years. Sugar is treated as a sensitive product subject to the 12-year transition period. Chile is not a traditional supplier of sugar to the United States, and it holds no allocation under the TRQ. Under the new FTA, Chile is granted 2,000 metric tons of access to the U.S. sugar market, provided it is a net exporter of sugar and limited to the amount of its net surplus. Chile has never been a net sugar exporter in recent years, so there is relatively little threat that Chiles exports would seriously threaten the U.S. sugar program or access to the United States by the African quota holders. On the other hand, the United States is currently negotiating FTAs with all of the Western Hemisphere (the FTAA negotiations), with the countries of Central America (CAFTA), with the members of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU), and with Australia, virtually all of which are major sugar producers and exporters. If the Chile FTA sugar provisions were to become the model for these proposed FTAs, future access to the U.S. sugar market by the African quota holders could be in serious jeopardy. The apparel benefits of AGOA may also be threatened by the ambitious and controversial new proposal for phasing out all nonagricultural tariffs by 2015. This new proposal was announced by the United States in the Doha Round of WTO negotiations on November 26, 2002. (See November 30, 2002 edition of the Trade Buletin.) Under the proposal, tariffs would be eliminated in two steps. First, during the period 2005-2010 all WTO members would cut all tariffs to an average level of less than 8%. In the second step, all remaining tariffs would be phased out in equal annual cuts during 2010-2015. While the new U.S. proposal would certainly spur additional trade at lower costs to consumers, some observers fear that the elimination of U.S. duties on apparel imports would make China the only apparel supplier to the United States, essentially wiping out the fledgling apparel industry in Africa that is being created by AGOA. Effective January 1, 2005, China will have quota-free access to the U.S. apparel market pursuant to the phasing out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement agreed to in the Uruguay Round and Chinas accession to WTO membership. African beneficiaries of AGOA constantly worry whether they will be able to survive the lifting of quotas on China, which is the largest apparel manufacturer and exporter in the world. The reassuring answer repeatedly given to the AGOA beneficiaries by U.S. officials is that they will be able to survive because they will have an ongoing duty preference over China. But under the new U.S. WTO proposal on tariffs, the AGOA duty preference would be cut in half at the very same time that the African apparel industry will be having to cope with increased competition from China as the current quotas on apparel imports from China are lifted effective January 1, 2005. Assuming that AGOA is renewed in 2008, the AGOA duty preference would be eliminated altogether between 2010 and 2015. Most observers think it is highly unlikely that the newly-created African apparel industry could become competitive enough by 2005-2008 to survive a 50% reduction in the current AGOA duty advantage. Virtually all observers agree that very little if any of the African apparel industry would survive the elimination of the duty preference in 2015. With the announcement of the new U.S. tariff phaseout proposal coming just six weeks before the second annual meeting of the AGOA Forum in Mauritius January 13-17, 2003 (see related article in this edition of the Trade Bulletin), the new tariff proposal is certain to be one of the more controversial measures that will be on the agenda for the 2003 AGOA Forum. USTR, ITC Solicit Comments on SACU FTA On November 5, 2002, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick formally notified Congress that the Administration intends to begin free trade negotiations with the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) countries South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. (See November 30, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) The SACU countries together constitute 56% of all of Africas apparel exports to the United States and include the number one (Lesotho) and number three (South Africa) apparel exporters. Staff level negotiations began in mid-December. Both the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) have instituted proceedings to investigate the scope and contents of the proposed FTA. USTR held a public hearing on the proposed SACU FTA on December 16, 2002, and written comments in lieu of testimony at the hearing were due by December 20. In one such set of written comments, the American Sugar Alliance, an umbrella group representing the interests of the U.S. sugar industry, opposed including sugar in the SACU FTA, arguing that sugar trade should be liberalized only at the multilateral level in the WTO context. Two of the SACU countries, South Africa and Swaziland, are major sugar producers and exporters. The ITC plans to hold a hearing on the SACU FTA on January 28, 2003. Written comments in lieu of testimony at the ITC hearing can be filed until February 4, 2003. The main reason the SACU countries have been interested in pursuing FTA negotiations with the United States is to lock in and make permanent the trade preferences authorized by AGOA through 2008. While it is likely that Congress will extend AGOA beyond 2008, the SACU countries are reportedly very interested in obtaining the greater certainty that would flow from an FTA. On the other hand, permanent FTA status will come at a price, as the United States will insist on receiving the quid pro quo of access to the SACU market on terms comparable to those created by AGOA. Given the importance of apparel exports for the SACU countries, it is anticipated that they may also seek to improve their terms of access for apparel exports beyond those created by AGOA. This is especially important for South Africa, which as a non-LDC is not allowed to use third-country fabric. It has been speculated, therefore, that the SACU countries may seek to liberalize the AGOA rules of origin, perhaps incorporating provisions based on those of the new FTA with Chile. (See related articles in this edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Malawi Approved for Folkloric Articles The U.S. Committee on the Implementation of Textile Agreements (CITA), the inter-agency group responsible for administering the folkloric and handmade provisions of AGOA, issued an order on December 10, 2002, finding that Malawi has become eligible to receive duty-free treatment for specific types of folkloric and handmade textile and apparel products. Only Kenya and Botswana have previously been approved under these special provisions of AGOA. (See November 30, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Imports under the 2002-03 AGOA TRQ Although the 2002-03 AGOA duty-free tariff rate quota (TRQ) on apparel opened on October 1, 2002, the Customs Service did not officially announce the size of the TRQ until November 25, 2002, when it published a notice that the total 2002-03 TRQ would be 735,905,928 square meter equivalents (smes). The announcement of the 2002-03 TRQ was delayed because the presidential proclamation implementing AGOA IIs doubling of the TRQ was not signed until November 13. (See November 30, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) The new TRQ figure represents 4.2414% of total U.S. apparel imports during the preceding 12 months. In addition to doubling the TRQ, AGOA II also bifurcated the increased TRQ between apparel made in LDCs from third-country fabric and apparel made from U.S. or African-origin fabric. Of the total TRQ for 2002-03, 359,399,147 smes is available for apparel made in LDCs from third-country fabric. The balance of the TRQ 376,506,781 smes applies to apparel made from African fabric. As of December 23, 2002, a total of 60,680,382 smes of apparel had entered duty-free under the 2002-03 TRQ, representing 8.25% of the total TRQ. Of this total amount of duty-free entries, 34,151,700 smes came from LDCs and was charged against the portion of the TRQ reserved for apparel from LDCs, representing 9.50% of that portion of the TRQ. The balance of 26,528,682 smes was imported from non-LDCs. Week Ending Entries During Week Cumulative Entries% Filled23 December 2,968,11960,680,3828.3%17 December 4,721,64857,712,2637.8% 9 December 4,509,83552,990,6157.2% 3 December 2,482,77348,480,7806.6%25 November22,771,74345,998,0076.3%18 November 3,764,19523,226,2643.2%12 November 2,537,99519,462,0692.6% 4 November 9,236,12316,924,0742.3%16 October 3,102,271 7,687,9511.0% 9 October 4,585,680 4,585,6800.6%The latest data on duty-free entries broken down by country and by the new bifurcated TRQ is current only through November 30, 2002: CountryDuty Free Imports as of November 30, 2002LDCs: Ethiopia 604 sme 0.01% of the TRQ Ghana 756 sme 0.01% Kenya 6,504,043 sme 1.81%  Lesotho 9,918,998 sme 2.76% Madagascar  761,590 sme 0.21% Malawi 355,642 sme 0.10% Mozambique  0 sme 0.00% Swaziland 3,540,765 sme 0.99% Tanzania 0 sme 0.00%LDC Subtotal 21,082,398 sme 3.29%Non-LDCs: Botswana 120,230 sme 0.02% Mauritius 2,153,210 sme 0.29% South Africa 3,015,416 sme 0.41%Non-LDC Subtotal 5,288,863 sme 0.72%Total26,371,260 sme 3.58% Imports under the 2001-02 AGOA TRQ The U.S. Department of Commerce has also now released final data on duty-free apparel entries under the 2001-02 TRQ on apparel broken down by product category. As reported in the following table, this data shows that 82% of duty-free imports were from LDCs and were made with third-country fabric, vividly illustrating the importance of the LDCs access to third-country fabric: AGOA Duty-Free Apparel ImportsEthiBotsGhaKenLesoMadaMalaMaurMozSASwazTanzTotals% of Duty-Free Import Cut U.S. Fabric0.01405480.0500.0330.1300.770.435 Uncut U.S. Fabric0.1080.100.001 African Fabric1..3390.0010.01012.95312.57226.9115.213 Third Country Fabric (LDCs)1.0410.14728.49571.63816.3582.730 0.00519.4140.040138.3182.478 Short Supply Fabric2.1450..3672.511.704 Cashmere Sweaters0.1070.0120.110.001 Fine Merino Sweaters0.0020.000.001 FolkloricTotal AGOA Duty-Free Imports1.0411..3390.14828.49571.65216.4752.73015.7690.05513.00619.5430.040201.65Dutiable Apparel Imports0.0221.4650..0932.4520.9493.6230.00925.2620.02548.7452.3020.15198.95Total Apparel Imports1.0632.8040.24129.22872.60120.0982.73941.0310.08061.75121.8450.194286.75 On a country-by-country basis, the statistics confirm that LDCs supplied nearly six times the volume of duty-free apparel imports as the non-LDCs under the 2001-02 TRQ, which ended on September 30, 2002: CountryDuty Free Imports as of September 30, 2002LDCs: Ethiopia 1,227,015 sme 0.39% of the TRQ Ghana 151,649 sme 0.05% Kenya 24,743,251 sme 9.17%  Lesotho 81,908,991 sme 26.14% Madagascar  24,278,412 sme 7.75% Malawi 3,444,606 sme 1.10% Mozambique  5,046 sme 0.01% Swaziland 19,130,624 sme 6.11% Tanzania 5,808 sme 0.01%LDC Subtotal158,895,402 sme 50.72%Non-LDCs: Botswana 1,237,181 sme 0.39% Mauritius 14,047,836 sme 4.48% South Africa 13,573,299 sme 4.33%Non-LDC Subtotal 28,858316 sme 9.21%Total187,753,717 sme 59.93% U.S. Textile Imports from Africa Continue To Climb U.S. apparel and textile imports from Sub-Saharan Africa during January-October 2002 amounted to 258.084 million square meter equivalents (msme), up a solid 31.3% from 196.602 msme during January-October 2001. To be clear, this represents total apparel and textile imports from Africa, not just those that qualify for duty-free under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This strong growth in imports from Africa is all the more impressive because U.S. textile and apparel imports from the countries of Central America and the Caribbean that are the beneficiaries of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) program were flat with almost no growth during January-October 2002 compared to the first ten months of 2001. The CBI countries together constitute the largest regional source of exports to the United States, supplying 9.7% of U.S. textile and apparel imports. The large market share enjoyed by the CBI countries results from both their geographic proximity to the U.S. market and the tariff and quota preferences granted to them by the CBI program. The fact that imports from Africa were up 31% while imports from the CBI were flat despite the CBI countries competitive advantages, is eloquent testimony to the effectiveness of AGOA in spurring increased textile and apparel trade with Africa. During the first ten months of 2002, Africa supplied 0.81% of total U.S. textile and apparel imports, up from 0.70% in the same period of 2001, as measured by the volume of such imports. During all of 2001, Africa supplied 0.71% of total U.S. textile and apparel imports, as compared to 0.57% in 2000. In terms of value, textile and apparel imports from all of Africa grew from $831.995 million in January-October 2001 to $952.038 million a year later, an increase of 14.4%. As measured by value, Africa supplied 1.57% of total U.S. apparel and textile imports in January-October 2002, as compared to 1.37% in January-October 2001, 1.1% in 2000 and 0.95% in 1999. Thus, Africas share of U.S. textile and apparel imports has increased by more than 50% since AGOA was enacted, regardless of whether such imports are measured by volume or value. Six countries together accounted for 95% of total U.S. apparel and textile imports from Africa during January-October 2002: Lesotho 72.601 msme 28.1%South Africa61.751 msme23.9%Mauritius41.031 msme15.9%Kenya29.288 msme11.4%Swaziland21.845 msme 8.5%Madagascar20.098 msme 7.8% Focusing just on apparel trade (i.e., excluding yarns, fabrics, and made-ups), these same six countries again supplied the lions share 95% but in slightly different proportions: Lesotho 72.601 msme30.9%South Africa 40.873 msme17.4%Mauritius 40.861 msme17.4%Kenya 28.100 msme11.9%Swaziland  21.841 msme 9.3%Madagascar 20.095 msme 8.5% In January 2002, Madagascar became the second largest exporter of apparel to the United States, surpassing both Mauritius and South Africa and behind only Lesotho, accounting for nearly 22% of total African apparel exports to the U.S. market. In February, however, Madagascar slipped back into third place, reflecting the dramatic slowing in imports from Madagascar since the political crisis surrounding the presidential elections became acute in December-January. This pattern of slowing apparel imports from Madagascar has continued through October, when Madagascar slipped into sixth place in apparel exports behind both Kenya and Swaziland and accounting for a mere 8.5% of U.S. apparel imports from Africa. Indeed, apparel imports from Madagascar during the first ten months of 2002 have actually fallen 37.2% below the same period last year, from 32.015 msme during January October 2001 to 20.095 msme during the same period this year. By contrast, during each of the past several years, apparel imports from Madagascar have grown by more than 100% over the prior year. With the peaceful resolution of the political crisis in Madagascar, there are encouraging signs that many of its closed apparel factories are beginning to reopen. Even so, it appears that it may be some time before Madagascars apparel trade will eventually be restored to its prior levels despite the growing political stability in the country. With the approval of the Cape Verde visa system, a total of 18 AGOA beneficiaries now have approved AGOA visa systems, qualifying them for duty-free access to the U.S. market. (See October 17, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) Only ten of these 18 duty-free countries have exported significant volumes of apparel to the United States so far during 2002: Botswana, Cape Verde, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland. Together, these nine duty-free countries accounted for 208.507 msme or 98.7% of total apparel imports from Africa during January-October 2002. Apparel imports from these ten countries with approved AGOA visa systems increased by 28.8% during January-October 2002, as measured by volume in msme. For purposes of comparison, during all of 2000 imports from Kenya were essentially flat, increasing by a mere 0.8%, while imports from Mauritius grew by 3.0%. The rate of growth of imports from the AGOA-eligible countries during January-October 2002, therefore, provides striking evidence that the opportunities created by the AGOA really do translate into increased trade. Growth in Apparel Imports from AGOA Duty-Free CountriesCountryJan.- Oct. 2001 (msme)Jan.- Oct. 2002 (msme)% GrowthBotswana 1.100 2.804 151.0%Cape Verde 0.524 0.937 78.8%Kenya 14.803 28.100 89.8%Lesotho 40.459 72.601 79.4%Madagascar 32.015 20.095 <37.2%>Malawi 3.359 2.738 <18.5%>Mauritius 35.905 40.873 13.8%Mozambique-0- 0.081 >100.0%South Africa 42.033 40.861 <2.8%>Swaziland 9.155 21.841138.6%Totals 179.353 230.931 28.8% By contrast, U.S. apparel imports from the rest of Africa i.e., those African countries without approved AGOA visa systems actually fell during the first ten months of 2002 from 4.631 msme to 4.117 msme, a drop of 11.1% from the same period last year. This demonstrates that having an approved AGOA visa system is becoming a minimum requirement for attracting apparel trade opportunities with the United States. Throughout the 1990s, Mauritius was traditionally the largest apparel exporter to the United States from the African region, regardless of whether such exports were measured by volume or value. This changed in March 2001 when, spurred on by the LDC advantage of access to cheaper and more plentiful third-country fabric under AGOA, Lesothos apparel exports to the United States shot ahead of those from Mauritius, as measured by volume. As measured by the value of apparel exports, Lesotho also took over first place, but 10 months later in January 2002. Lesotho has remained in first place ever since, as measured by either value or volume of apparel exports to the United States. The greatest percentage growth in exports to the United States during January-October 2002 was recorded by Botswana, whose apparel exports increased by 154.8% over January-October 2001. This strong growth in the level of apparel imports from Botswana represents a remarkable reversal of declining apparel exports as a result of Botswana having originally been classified as a non-LDC, which prevented it from using third-country fabric. The sharp growth in apparel imports from Botswana began in July (see August 1, 2002 edition of the Trade Bulletin.) and seems to have been in anticipation of enactment of the AGOA II amendments, which reclassified Botswana as an LDC, thereby enabling it to use third-country fabric. Also impressive have been the growth rates posted during the first ten months of 2002 by Cape Verde 78.8%, Kenya 89.8%, Lesotho 79.4%, and Swaziland 138.6%, while both South Africas and Madagascars apparel exports have at least temporarily fallen into negative territory with losses of <2.8%> and <37.2%>, respectively. The drop in apparel exports by South Africa is more than offset, however, by a 131% increase in non-apparel textile exports from 9.034 msme in January-October 2001 to 20.890 msme during the same period this year. CountryJan.-Oct. 2001 msme $ millionJan.- Oct. 2002 msme $ million% Growth msme $ millionBotswana 1.100 $2.170 2.804 $5.829154.8% 168.6%Cape Verde 0.524 $1.003 0.937 $1.278 78.8% 27.4%Kenya 14.803 $53.064 28.100 $102.157 89.8% 92.5%Lesotho 40.459 $173.351 72.601 $275.325 79.4% 58.5%Madagascar 32.015 $155.106 20.095 $82.006<37.2%> <47.1%>Malawi 3.359 $6.523 2.738 $9.488<18.5%> 45.5%Mauritius 35.905 $208.819 40.873 $221.075 13.8% 5.9%South Africa 42.033 $156.005 40.861 $148.789 <2.8%> <4.6%>Swaziland 9.155 $39.368 21.841 $73.584138.6% 86.9%Rest of Africa 4.631 $16.194 4.198 $13.912 <9.4%> <14.1%>Total183.984 $811.603235.048 $933.443 27.8% 15.0% 2002 U.S. Textile Imports from Africa (million square meters) through October 31, 2002 Product CategoryBotswanaCape VerdeKenyaLesothoMadagascar222 Knit fabric223 Non-woven fabric229 Special fabric237 Playsuit, sunsuit0.225239 Baby garments0.476313 Cotton Sheeting333 Suit Type Coat, M334 Oth. coats, M/B335 W/G coats 0.056336 Cotton dresses0.953338 Knit shirts6.0462.407339 Knit blouses0.76614.1442.418340 Woven shirts1.0450.604342 Skirts0.2230.304345 Cotton sweaters0.1761.687347 Trousers6.04513.7733.089348 W/G slacks0.66310.31114.5353.182350 Dressing gowns0.810351 Nightwear352 Underwear0.914360 Pillowcases369 Other Cotton Man400 Wool yarn410 Wool Woven Fabric433 Suit coats435 W/G coats438 K. shirts, blouses0.069443 M/B wool suits 445 Wool sweater, M/B0.106446 Wool sweater, W/G0.058447 M Wool Trousers459 Other Wool Apparel600 Text Fil Yarn0.944606 Non-textile yarn620 Othr Synth Filaments635 Coats W/G638 Knit shirts0.7208.7290.703639 Knit blouses0.9224.354643 MMF suits644 MMF W/G suits0.072645 MMF M/B sweater646 MMF sweaters, W/G0.026647 Trousers0.9592.8750.494648 W/G slacks1.6394.228650 Dress Gown0.601651 Nightwear, PJs0.595652 MMF underwear659 Other MMF apparel1.006669 Other MMF man847 S/V trousers0.149Totals by Country2.804 0.93729.22872.60120.098 2002 U.S. Textile Imports from Africa (million square meters) through October 31, 2002 Product CategoryMalawiMauritiusSouth AfricaSwazilandZimbabwe222 Knit fabric1.933223 Non-woven fabric8.102229 Special fabric2.049237 Playsuit, sunsuit0.193239 Baby garments1.058313 Cotton Sheeting0.001333 Suit Type Coat, M0.016334 Oth. coats, M/B0.891335 W/G coats0.4370.3130.689336 Cotton dresses0.416338 Knit shirts2.1265.6451.531339 Knit blouses3.1386.9894.381340 Woven shirts0.2457.5961.1980.871342 Skirts1.2220.332345 Cotton sweaters0.6070.2241.172347 Trousers0.3629.3675.5982.5741.548348 W/G slacks0.72111.9315.0892.963350 Dressing gowns0.382351 Nightwear0.8480.945352 Underwear360 Pillowcases0.033369 Other Cotton Man0.132400 Wool yarn0.607410 Wool Woven Fabric0.044433 Suit coats0.802435 W/G coats0.037438 K. shirts, blouses0.0210.2700.010443 M/B wool suits 0.024445 Wool sweater, M/B0.195446 Wool sweater, W/G0.0580.010447 M Wool Trousers0.462459 Other Wool Apparel0.037600 Text fil yarn606 Non-textile yarn0.936620 Othr Synth Filaments3.345635 Coats W/G1.785638 Knit shirts0.5780.8070.945639 Knit blouses0.2001.262643 MMF suits0.007644 MMF W/G suits0.030645 MMF MB sweater0.416646 MMF sweaters, W/G647 Trousers1.0420.557648 W/G slacks1.7230.600650 Dress Gown651 Nightwear, PJs2.371652 MMF underwear1.966659 Other MMF apparel669 Other MMF man1.117847 S/V trousersTotals by Country2.73941.03161.75121.8451.824 AGOA Short Supply Petition Rulings The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provides for duty-free treatment outside the tariff rate quota (TRQ) for apparel made from yarns and/or fabrics found to be in short supply in the United States. This special status applies to both (1) certain yarns and fabrics that have previously been found to be in short supply under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and (2) additional yarns/fabrics for which new short supply petitions are filed under the AGOA procedures. Parallel short provisions exist under both NAFTA and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) program. While short supply proceedings under AGOA, NAFTA and the CBI are technically distinct, a determination whether positive or negative under one programs short supply provisions is almost certain to be equally applicable under the other program. Nevertheless, separate short supply petitions must be filed under AGOA for products from Africa to be eligible. No new short supply petitions have been filed recently under the AGOA procedures. The following table summarizes the status of the various short supply petitions filed so far under AGOA: ProductFiled ByDate FiledStatusFine count and poly-cotton shirting fabric for use in trousers, shorts, skirts, dresses, handkerchiefsEsquel and Textile Industries Ltd.2-28-02Approved 8-29-02Cuprammonium rayon filament yarnSymphony Fabrics and Unifi Inc.11-20-21Approved 4-2-02Micro-denier 30 singles and 36 singles solution dyed staple spun viscose yarns produced on open-ended spindles (Refiling with more evidence of March 12, 2001 petition denied on May 3, 2001.)Fabrictex Inc.6-29-01Denied 9-6-01Rayon filament yarnICF Industries, Inc.5-23-01Approved 11-13-01Microfilment fabric of continuous polyester and nylon filaments with average size of 0.02 to 0.8 decitexFeudenberg Nonwovens Group5-8-01Denied 7-12-0155%-45% polyester-worsted wool yarnStillwater Sales and Metcalf Bros.5-4-01Denied 7-12-01100% polyester yarn of 150 denier/140 filament textured polyester containing one end of 75-70 cationic dyeable polyester intermingled with one of 75/70 disperse dyeable polyesterVal dOr and Malden Mills3-23-01Denied 5-24-0130 singles and 36 singles solution dyed staple spun viscose yarnFabrictex Inc. 3-12-01Denied 5-3-01100% polyester crushed panne velour fabricGranada Sales Corp. 3-6-01Approved 9-20-01Fine cotton and poly-cotton shirting fabric for use in blouses and nightwearEsquel and Textile Industries Ltd.3-1-01Approved 9-24-01Cashmere and camel hair yarnsAmicale Industries, Inc.2-28-01Denied 6-20-01 U.S. Sugar Quota Update Ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa hold allocations under the U.S. tariff rate quota (TRQ) on raw sugar. These allocations range from 7,258 metric tons (MT), the minimum allocation under the TRQ, to 24,220 MT in the case of South Africa. The TRQ for 2002-03 is set at 1,117,195 MT, which is the bound minimum level under the Uruguay Round Agreements. The TRQ allocations assigned to the ten African quota holders and 2002-03 imports from these countries as of December 23, 2002 (according to U.S. Customs Service records) are summarized in the following table.  CountryAllocation (MT)Imports (MT) % FilledCongo 7,258 0.0 0.00Cote dIvoire 7,258 0.0 0.00Gabon 7,258 0.0 0.00Madagascar 7,258 0.0 0.00Malawi10,530 9,149.400  86.89Mauritius12,636 395.242 3.13Mozambique13,69013,689.945  99.99South Africa24,22023,745.539 98.04Swaziland16,84916,479.270 97.81Zimbabwe12,63612,371.355 97.91 The 2002-03 refined sugar TRQ also opened on October 1, and was substantially oversubscribed at opening. The Customs Service has announced that 23.6% of all cargoes presented at the opening of the refined TRQ on October 1 were allowed to enter duty-free within the TRQ. The balance of such refined sugar cargoes must be either re-exported, put in bonded storage until next year or enter on a duty-paid basis as second-tier sugar. The 1,656 MT first tranche of the specialty sugar TRQ opened on October 30 and was substantially oversubscribed at the opening, with 14.3% of cargoes presented at opening allowed to enter duty-free. The 15,000 MT second tranche of the specialty TRQ, which is reserved for organic sugar and other specialty sugars not produced in the United States, opened on November 19 and did not fill at opening. As of December 23, 2002, a total of 14,197.634 MT had entered under the second tranche of the specialty TRQ, representing 94.65% of the second tranche. U.S. Sugar Market Update The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on December 10, 2002, issued the December edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which makes numerous but fairly insignificant changes to the prior month's U.S. sugar supply and demand data. The changes start with the data for the 2000-01 crop/tariff rate quota (TRQ) year, for which USDA has increased the U.S. consumption figure by 21,000 short tons (ST) to reflect final updated statistics. This reduces ending stocks for 2000-01 from 2.201 million ST in the November WASDE to 2.180 million ST in the December report. This slight reduction in 2000-01 ending stocks is then carried forward as lower opening stocks for 2001-02 crop/TRQ year. USDA then reduced non-TRQ imports during 2001-02 by 4,000 ST to reflect updated trade statistics. Together, these changes decrease the 2001-02 sugar supply in the domestic market by 25,000 ST. On the other hand, the December WASDE also reduces the domestic consumption estimate for 2001-02 by 18,000 ST, again due to updated statistics. Altogether, these various small changes mostly offset each other, reducing 2001-02 ending stocks by a mere 7,000 ST. The 2001-02 ending stocks-to-use ratio remains unchanged at 12.5. The lower ending stocks for 2001-02 are carried forward to the current crop/TRQ year, reducing opening stocks to 1.288 million ST. The December WASDE also reduces the domestic production estimate for the current year by 50,000 ST due to reduced yield in Louisana. All other data for 2002-03 remains unchanged from the November WASDE. As a result, the 2002-03 ending stocks are reduced a total of 57,000 ST to 1.203 million ST, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio falls from 12.7 in November to 12.1 in the December WASDE. These various changes do not seem to reflect any significant change in U.S. market conditions.  MUSBA Trade Bulletin December 31, 2002 Page  PAGE 17  A publication of the Mauritius-U.S. Business Association, Inc. 1054 Thirty-First Street, N.W., Suite 300, Washington, D.C. 20007 Phone: (202) 965-3443; Fax: (202) 965-3445 E-mail: MUSBA@his.com All rights reserved MUSBA Members Are there major new developments at your company? Have you launched a new project or initiated a new program that may be of interest to other MUSBA members? If so, you should publicize such developments in the MUSBA Trade Bulletin. MUSBA encourages its members to submit articles, notices and announcements for publication in the Trade Bulletin. Inside . . . . . . Welcome to the Private Sector Session of the 2003 AGOA Forum 1 A Tribute to Rosa Whitaker 4 Frist Elected Senate Majority Leader 5 New FTAs and Tariff Proposal Could Undercut AGOA Benefits 6 USTR, ITC Solicit Comments on SACU FTA 8 Malawi Approved for Folkloric Articles 8 Imports Under the 2003-03 AGOA TRQ 8 Imports Under the 2001-02 AGOA TRQ 9 U.S. Textile Imports from Africa Continue To Climb 10 AGOA Short Supply Petition Rulings 15 U.S. Sugar Quota Update 15 U.S. Sugar Market Update 16  EMBED Photoshop.Image.4  MAURITIUS-U.S. BUSINESS ASSOCIATION, INC. Membership Application Name: Company/Organization: Address: Telephone: Fax: Email: Class of Membership Annual Dues Premier US $10,000 Sponsor $ 5,000 Corporate $ 1,000 Individual $ 250 Please complete the application form and either return it with your check in the appropriate amount payable to MUSBA. MUSBA expresses its appreciation to the law firm of Ryberg and Smith of Washington, D.C. for its contributions to this edition of the Trade Bulletin. 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